Ground Risk Model for UAVs is a work by Andrew V. Shelley. This paper presents an alternative to the JARUS SORA ground risk model. The author highlights certain inconsistencies in the SORA ground risk model, notably that ground risk continues to rise even when there is no accompanying increase in fatality probability.

The ground risk associated with UAS is heavily influenced by population density. The definitions of population density vary across different regulatory jurisdictions. In this context, a classification system for population density has been created based on the official statistics categories of New Zealand. This system provides a more detailed risk analysis compared to the classification system offered by SORA, thus allowing for a more nuanced assessment of risk.

Publication Date- 2023

Ground Risk Model for UAVs contains the following main sections:

  • SORA Methodology and Ground Risk
  • Population Density
  • Ground Risk Methodology
  • Results
  • Discussion
  • Conclusion
  • References

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Author- Andrew V. Shelley

C-UAS Hub Commentary- Ground risk models for UAVs apply to the Counter-UAS (airspace awareness and protection mission), especially those conducted in and around urban environments or mass gatherings. Operators with authority to use drone mitigation technology should be familiar with and consider the risks associated with each tool and its potential impact on nearby mass gatherings or populated areas.

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