The threats posed by hostile UAS are advancing rapidly, and with that comes the pressing need for equally innovative counter-drone technologies. Imagine a future where drones are are detected through quantum physics and intercepted before they breach critical airspace, where artificial intelligence anticipates threats and where lasers neutralize rogue drones with precision at long ranges.
In 2025, we may be on the verge of turning this vision into reality, as groundbreaking counter-UAS technologies take center stage due to the increasing concerns around evolving drone threats.
With insights from the U.S Army, Marines and DEVCOM, let’s take a look at the five technologies that could shape the future of counter-drone defense in the coming year, and why they’ll be the ones to watch.
1. AI-enhanced counter-drone systems
Artificial intelligence (AI) has already transformed multiple industries, and counter-UAS is no exception. AI-powered drone threat prediction systems are rapidly advancing, with the potential to predict a drone’s behavior before it becomes a risk.
The key strength of AI is its ability to rapidly process vast amounts of data, something that has become key for counter-UAS. As the advantages of layered defenses have become widely accepted, many counter-UAS systems have integrated extensive arrays of sensors, cameras and other detecting equipment.
The use of AI is key for making use of all of this data in real-time. We have already seen AI systems that not only detect and track rogue drones but also anticipate their flight paths, such as those developed by Fortem Technologies, DroneShield and DeDrone, and development of AI technologies will only accelerate.
What to Expect in 2025: These AI-driven systems will become faster, more accurate and able to predict drone movements in real time. AI is likely to become the backbone of layered defense strategies, aiding in the orchestration of extensive counter-drone suites.
2. Cost-effective counter-drone missiles
Traditionally, missiles have been considered impractical for counter-UAS applications due to their high cost. However, ongoing work is making missiles more viable for countering drones, especially in scenarios involving higher-value targets such as Group 3 drones.
The U.S. Army’s DEVCOM Aviation and Missile Center is actively developing missile technologies tailored for counter-UAS purposes. Sarah Parker, Air & Missile Defense Capability Lead for the center, told C-UAS Hub:
“We have missile technologies that we are developing to get after that drone threat, developing technologies that are lower-cost so that we can do that cheaper and more efficiently.”
Sarah Parker, DEVCOM Aviation and Missile Center
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These efforts aim to reduce the cost per engagement, making missiles a more practical solution for addressing drone threats. Industry is also contributing to advancements in this area. BlueHalo is currently working on a next-generation counter-UAS missile system as part of a U.S. Army program and Estonian firm, Frankenburg Technologies, is working to make missiles for the Ukrainian Army that are “ten times more affordable, a hundred times faster to produce, and in quantities far exceeding current industry capabilities”
What to Expect in 2025: As research progresses, we can expect to see counter-UAS missiles that strike a balance between cost and capability. These systems will likely feature enhanced targeting precision, scalability to address multiple threats and integration with broader air defense networks. Such innovations could redefine the role of missiles in counter-UAS operations, making them a more viable choice in the counter-drone arsenal.
3. Quantum radar for counter-drone systems
Traditional radar systems are limited in their ability to detect stealthy or small drones. Quantum radar uses pairs of “entangled photons,” where one photon is sent out while its partner is kept for comparison. This allows the system to detect even small or stealthy drones by identifying weak signals that regular radars might miss. It is highly resistant to jamming, works well in noisy environments and can track drones with greater accuracy and range, even in swarms or behind obstacles.
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Despite its potential, quantum radar faces challenges like the technical complexity of generating and detecting entangled photons, susceptibility to environmental factors like atmospheric conditions and high costs due to advanced technology requirements.
What to Expect in 2025: Several companies and academic institutions are working to advance this technology, such as Lockheed Martin, HENSOLDT, University of Birmingham and Technical University of Munich. Continued efforts in 2025 could see some of the limitations of quantum radar being overcome, enhancing detection capability in adverse conditions and making the technology more accessible.
4. Directed energy weapons for drone defeats
Lasers have been part of the counter-UAS landscape for years, but 2025 could see advancements that address their current limitations and expand their capabilities. Directed energy weapons (DEWs) are moving toward higher power levels, improved beam control and enhanced resilience to atmospheric challenges such as thermal blooming and weather interference.
Programs like the Navy’s HELCAP are pioneering 300+ kW-class systems that could engage larger and faster threats, such as anti-ship cruise missiles. Key developments include advancements in adaptive optics for mitigating atmospheric turbulence and enhanced beam control technologies, such as fast steering mirrors and deformable mirrors, which improve targeting precision and reduce jitter in cluttered environments.
There is also still work that needs to be done to enhance effectiveness of laser weapons against Group 3 UAS. Last year Col. Steven Gutierrez, who serves as Project Manager for Directed Energy with the US Army Rapid Capabilities and Critical Technologies Office, told C-UAS Hub that a tactically relevant HEL capability that is lethal against Group 3 UAS is the “holy grail” that he is chasing.
“When I speak of being able to get to that capability, I’m talking in terms of more than just lethality, I’m talking about affordability, maintainability and availability. I think all of these will converge along the development line to be able to give that tactically relevant Group 3 directed energy killer.”
Colonel Steven Gutierrez, U.S. Army
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What to Expect in 2025: Innovations in adaptive optics and power scaling could allow DEWs to maintain effectiveness across a wider range of conditions. Additionally, these systems are expected to become more compact, easier to integrate and capable of longer operational ranges, making them a more practical solution for both military and critical infrastructure applications.
5. Portable and lightweight counter-drone systems
It is not always possible to provide a full, layered counter-drone defense, particularly for troops involved in expeditionary operations that may find themselves operating under contested airspace. In December 2024, Major Jason Dempsey of the U.S. Marines called for more lightweight solutions to protect Marines.
“I need Marines that have the ability to not necessarily conduct air defense, but conduct self-defense against the aerial threat.”
Major Jason Dempsey, U.S. Marine Corps
While there are numerous systems available that are deemed ‘man-portable,’ this is not quite the same as a system that is truly lightweight or dismounted, according to Major Dempsey. A lightweight system needs to be capable of integrating into a soldier’s kit without weighing them down over long distances.
There are some systems which may fit the bill, such as the P.S. Killer by XDOWN which can be launched like a football. However, this is an area of the counter-drone market that is not yet fully established, and we are likely to see continued development of lightweight solutions
What to Expect in 2025: As technology advances, portable counter-drone systems are expected to become more lightweight, ergonomic and efficient. Innovations in power management and miniaturization, driven by a clear demand for smaller systems for “self-defense against against the aerial threat,” will likely play a crucial role in enabling frontline personnel to respond swiftly drone threats.
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