Europe must prepare to field a large-scale drone force capable of countering Russia in a potential future conflict, according to EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius. His warning follows military intelligence assessments suggesting Russia could be ready to strike a NATO country within the next five years.
According to Kubilius, Europe needs to urgently scale up its drone capabilities. He estimates that millions of drones would be required to match Russia’s growing inventory and battlefield experience.
“Russia can have around five million drones, so we need to have capacities bigger than those in order to prevail,” he said.
Impact of the war in Ukraine
Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has faced an evolving threat from Ukraine’s rapidly advancing drone forces. The war has driven innovation and mass production in unmanned systems, with Ukraine expected to produce more than four million drones this year alone. Ukrainian officials have claimed that drone units are now responsible for up to 80 percent of Russian frontline losses.
Kubilius, who has visited Ukraine to observe its drone operations, cited one heavily contested area dubbed “Death Valley” as evidence of how drones dominate the modern battlefield.
“Nothing can move. Everything is controlled by drones. A traditional tank in that zone survives six minutes,” he said.
Drawing a parallel to his home country of Lithuania, which shares a long border with Russia and Belarus, Kubilius estimated that a nation like his would need three million drones annually in a high-intensity conflict.
However, he cautioned against stockpiling drones now, as technology is evolving rapidly. Instead, he argued for investment in personnel and industrial capacity to enable a rapid scale-up when needed.
“On the European continent, at the moment, there are only two armies battle-tested with the ability to use millions of drones: one is Russian, which is planning new aggressions; another one is Ukrainian,” he said.
European defense closing the gap
European defense companies are working to develop systems that will close the gap with regard to UAS and counter-UAS capabilities. German start-up STARK has developed loitering munitions for Ukraine and emphasized the need for constant adaptation.
“Every day you have to adapt,” said STARK’s senior vice president Josef Kranawetvogl. “You have such fast development cycles in Ukraine – two or three weeks, then there’s something new upcoming and you have to be prepared for this.”
German firm Alpine Eagle is developing interceptor drones designed to shoot down hostile UAS at ranges of up to five kilometers. CEO Jan-Hendrik Boelens warned that NATO members are currently unprepared for mass drone attacks like those seen in Ukraine.
“We are absolutely not ready in my view,” he said.
Boelens pointed to Ukraine’s production of around 1.3 million drones last year, and estimated that NATO countries such as Germany may have procured only a few hundred.
“If Ukraine consumed 1.3 million drones per year, that’s 3,000 a day. So, if you have 100 in your inventory, that would not last an hour.”
While a spokesperson from the German Defence Ministry said those figures “do not closely reflect reality,” they acknowledged that drones are now an integral part of military operations and training.
RELATED CONTENT: Alpine Eagle raises €10.25 million for air-to-air counter-drone solution
NATO makes drone warfare a strategic priority
NATO leaders have declared drone warfare a strategic priority. At a recent summit, members committed to increasing defense spending to 5 percent of GDP by 2035 and boosting air defenses fivefold.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated:
“We see Russia’s deadly terror from the skies over Ukraine every day, and we must be able to defend ourselves from such attacks.”
The UK has announced that drones will be central to its new warfighting doctrine, outlining a 20-40-40 strategy in which 20 percent of combat platforms are traditional heavy systems, 40 percent are expendable drones and 40 percent are reusable unmanned systems. An additional £2 billion has been earmarked for army drones in this parliamentary term.
Elsewhere, European countries are signing co-production deals with Ukraine. Germany and Denmark have followed the UK in pledging closer collaboration with Ukrainian industry on drone manufacturing.
In Berlin, Sven Weizenegger, head of the German military’s cyber innovation hub, said his team receives up to 20 enquiries daily from companies offering drone technologies. He emphasized the need for faster procurement to keep up with evolving threats.
“We are very advanced in the innovation process… Unfortunately, what we are not good at right now… is getting these things into real operations,” he said.
Germany has pledged to accelerate its defense buildup, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz promising to create “the strongest conventional army in Europe.” Unmanned systems and air defense are set to be key pillars of that effort.
RELATED CONTENT: NATO is looking for an answer to the fiber-optic drone problem
Post Image Credit: Russia’s Defense Ministry
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