A new research article by Lt. Col. Andriejus Grachauskas offers one of the most comprehensive assessments to date of how modern warfare trends, shaped primarily by the wars in Ukraine and Israel, are transforming security requirements for the Baltic region.
The study argues that cheap, smart mass (drones, loitering munitions, USVs, UGVs), layered air defense, electromagnetic spectrum dominance and fused fires have fundamentally changed the character of war, demanding rapid adaptation from Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland.
Key findings
Drone warfare defines the modern battlefield
Ukraine’s rapid industrialization of drone production, over 100,000 per month by 2024, demonstrates how FPV swarms, reconnaissance UAVs and naval USVs have overturned traditional cost‑exchange ratios. Small $500 quadcopters can destroy multimillion‑dollar armor, while fiber‑optic‑guided FPVs and autonomous terminal seekers bypass enemy jamming. Maritime drones such as MAGURA V5/V7 have forced the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol.
Layered air and missile defense is now essential for national survival
Combat in Ukraine and Israel shows that no single system can counter simultaneous threats from ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, loitering munitions, and small drones. Effective defense requires multi‑tier architecture, from Patriots and Arrow‑3 to NASAMS, IRIS‑T, Gepard/SKYNEX and point‑defense jammers and lasers. The Baltic States must integrate more closely with Poland’s IBCS network to extend a shared defensive shield across the region.
Electronic warfare determines whether precision weapons function
Kaliningrad‑based Russian EW systems already jam and spoof GPS across northern Europe, disrupting aviation, shipping, agriculture, and emergency services. On the battlefield, Russian and Ukrainian EW capabilities degrade precision munitions by 60-80% and routinely down or disable drones. The study concludes that Baltic militaries must train “GPS‑degraded by default,” employ fiber‑optic and autonomous systems, and distribute EW assets down to the battalion level.
Kill‑web fusion accelerates the detect‑decide‑deliver cycle
Ukraine demonstrates how artillery integrated with drones, software like DELTA/Kropyva, and automated targeting workflows can strike in under two minutes from detection. Deep fires, HIMARS, ATACMS, Storm Shadow and long‑range UAVs enable cumulative paralysis of enemy logistics, command nodes and air defenses. The Baltic States must adopt similar fused architectures to offset Russian mass.
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Post Image Credit: Atlantic Council
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