Remote Warfare and Small Western Countries is a Naval Postgraduate School thesis by Cedric F. Craninx.

Remote warfare encompasses a set of interconnected elements aimed at optimizing operational efficiency. Several smaller Western nations have adopted this model to mitigate threats from afar, minimize risks, and control financial expenditures. However, due to their distinctive strategic culture and limited resources, these nations encounter constraints in fully implementing this model. This study seeks to assess the influence of remote warfare on risk and operational efficiency within the context of smaller Western countries.

An analysis rooted in systemic, strategic assessment reveals that a synergy between various intelligence sources and methodologies augments the volume of available data, thereby enhancing operational effectiveness and its measurement. This, in turn, reduces subjective biases and errors while bolstering strategic and political support. System dynamics modeling and simulation were employed to evaluate the effectiveness of two forms of remote warfare support – training and intelligence support for local partners.

The findings indicate that simply expanding a partner’s force size through training is ineffective without concurrent intelligence support. Providing intelligence support to a partner nation’s force enhances its capacity to identify and neutralize insurgent forces, reducing their size and impact. Consequently, this research suggests a shift in the focus of remote warfare support, advocating for a concept that combines special operations forces with coalition efforts to enhance partner capabilities and offer a more comprehensive array of support options, particularly emphasizing diverse intelligence resources.

Publication Date– June 2023

Remote Warfare in Small Western Countries contains the following major sections:

  • Introduction to the Strategic Problem and the Study Design
  • Strategic System Analysis
  • Systems Dynamics Modeling and Analysis
  • Findings
  • Conclusions and Future Research Recommendations
  • Recommendations for Smaller Countries’ SOF

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Author- Cedric F. Craninx

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