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Russia could be preparing for winter assault on Ukrainian energy infrastructure

Russia has intensified its aerial assault on Ukraine by launching a combination of missiles and drones against Kyiv overnight between November 12-13. This marks the first use of both missiles and drones on the Ukrainian capital in over 70 days, according to Ukrainian authorities.

Ukraine’s air force reported that it intercepted four missiles and 37 drones across eight regions during the night and into the early hours. President Volodymyr Zelensky once again highlighted the importance of enhancing air defence capabilities, stating:

“It is important that our forces have the means to defend the country from Russian terror.”

The surge in attacks comes as Ukraine continues pressing Western allies for additional systems to protect its cities and essential infrastructure. On the ground, the situation remains tense, with Russian forces advancing in the eastern parts of Ukraine and concerns over future aid in light of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections.

The drone and missile assaults come as the geopolitical landscape surrounding the war shifts. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed “cautious optimism” following discussions with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels about the potential for deep strikes on Russian military targets and Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration aspirations.

“We discussed issues of long-range strikes and Euro-Atlantic integration. And here we also are cautiously optimistic,” Sybiha stated.

However, the U.S. and other allies have hesitated to support long-range strikes into Russia, wary of further escalation.

It has been speculated that the reduced use of Russian missiles suggest an attempt to conserve stockpiles for the Winter. Renewed assaults on energy infrastructure during the colder months, featuring drones and missiles, when attacks on energy infrastructure could put the Ukrainian people under immense stress. The strategic targeting of Ukraine’s power grid has previously been a hallmark of Russia’s winter campaigns, significantly disrupting electricity and heating services​.

Post Image – On March 22, Russia launched the largest air attack on Ukraine’s energy sector since the beginning of the full-scale invasion (Post Image Credit: Prime Minister of Ukraine via Telegram).

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