In its most extensive missile assault in the past three months, Russia launched a major strike which confirmed fears that they would begin targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in the winter months. Overnight, Russia unleashed an aerial assault consisting of 120 missiles and 90 drones. Despite the scale of the attack, Ukrainian forces successfully intercepted the majority of the incoming projectiles, suggesting that the Ukrainians have been prepared for a return to Russian missile strikes.
The assault, which led to widespread power and water outages in regions like Odesa, aimed to cripple Ukraine’s already strained energy infrastructure. Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), who recently visited Ukraine, emphasised that the strike did not catch Ukrainians off guard.
“The Russians had not carried out a large-scale attack for several months and it was clear that they had amassed a certain stockpile of missiles to launch such an attack. From Russia’s perspective, the likely goal of this strike was to damage Ukraine’s energy system. It certainly caused some harm. However, I would say that, based on initial assessments, it appears Ukraine has managed to prevent the worst outcomes,” Kannik stated.
The Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, witnessed a high interception rate of missiles, highlighting just how far the Ukrainian air defence capabilities have come. However, Kannik pointed out that despite Ukraine’s robust response, cumulative damage over time has led to a notable reduction in electricity production capacity.
Leo Kunnas, deputy chair of the Riigikogu National Defence Committee, noted Ukraine’s resilience and the continuous efforts to rebuild its energy infrastructure:
“They are doing what they can to repair power plants, hydroelectric and thermal power stations that have been hit. They are working on repairing substations and ensuring that lines and substations are more secure, but it is, of course, impossible to completely rule out Russia’s targeted strikes,” Kunnas remarked.
Experts remain cautious yet confident in Ukraine’s capacity to withstand such attacks. Kunnas concluded that despite Russia’s repeated offensives, they are unlikely to subdue Ukraine’s infrastructure this winter.
Kannik also noted that these strikes could be part of a broader strategy linked to geopolitical shifts:
“Russia is certainly attempting to escalate the situation before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in January. However, Russia cannot deplete Ukraine’s air defence stockpiles solely through infrastructure attacks, as their own resources are limited,” he explained.
Highlighting Ukraine’s resourcefulness, Kannik mentioned that while advanced systems like F-16 jets and Patriot missiles were used, simpler and more accessible means also played a role in defence.
“Drones are often shot down using relatively simple, available means. Sunday’s attack also demonstrated this, with Ukraine employing various measures. Some were intercepted using F-16 jets, others with the Patriot system and there was even an image of a Ukrainian female soldier taking down a Russian missile with a MANPADS,” he said.
While the latest attack once again reminds us of the ongoing threat posed by Russia’s aggressive tactics, it also reaffirms Ukraine’s adaptive defence strategies and determination to keep its essential infrastructure functioning against all odds.
Post Image – Natalia Hrabarchuk shot down a Russian cruise missile with the man-portable air defense system (Post Image Credit: Ukrainian Air Force).
